Grand Canal Capital Partners
Confidential · 15 · 05 · 2026
Investor Brief · Project Olympia · London W14

Operator-led value-add. Discounted entry. Freehold London.

A 405-key freehold hotel adjacent to Olympia London. Grand Canal Capital Partners is structuring a single-asset London co-investment — bilateral or club.
AssetHilton London Olympia
Assumed Entry£90m – £95m (£222k – £234.5k / key)
Stabilised NOI£10.4m by Year 5
5-yr Levered IRR14.88% – 15.32% · EM 1.87× – 1.90×
StatusConfidential · Internal Review
§ 0 · Executive summary

Opportunity to acquire and reposition a prime London freehold hotel with an operating solution delivering value-add returns.

Hilton Olympia has been starved of capex since 2022 — priced like a midscale asset in an upscale market. GCCP is working with an operating partner to provide an investor, or group of investors, the capability to reposition the asset, convert the operating structure to a franchise and deliver an operating solution.

— 01

Assumed Entry of £90m – £95m is 27% – 30% below the 2022 transaction basis.

At £222,000 to £235,000 per key, the asset is priced at a material discount to the market. Stabilised franchised London comparables trade materially higher on a per-bedroom basis.

— 02

The plan stabilises, refurbishes while trading, then rebrands.

Phased Capex of £45m – £50m (£111,000 – £123,700 per key) delivered floor-by-floor. Rebrand to DoubleTree within the Hilton ecosystem. Flip from management to franchise. NOI more than doubles from £4.6m current EBITDA to £10.4m stabilised by Year 5.

— 03

Competitive set supports robust yields on stabilised assets.

Franchised London hotel transactions have priced at 5.0–5.75% yields (Westminster Curio 5.1%, Holiday Inn Kensington 5.5%, Edwardian Portfolio 5.6%). Total project cost of c.£142m (£350,000 per key) sits well inside the exit-value range — before tax and any planning-optionality upside.

The transaction at a glance
Assumed Entry Price
£90 – £95m
£222k – £234.5k / key · vs £130m basis (2022)
Current EBITDA
£4.6m
83.6% occupancy · £18.2m revenue
Stabilised NOI (Y5)
£10.4m
LP IRR · 5-yr Levered
14.88 – 15.32%
Before taxes & capital allowances · 1.87× – 1.90× equity multiple
The opportunity

Grand Canal Capital Partners is structuring a single-asset London co-investment — bilateral or club.

The deal is assembled. The operator is sourced. The model is built. What remains is the equity to execute.

01 · Sourced

Access via JLL · operating partner engaged · Hilton received the rebrand thesis positively.

02 · Structured

Structured equity of approximately £53.5m · 63% LTV senior debt @ 7% · share acquisition · Year-3 refinancing built into the plan.

03 · Executable

Single LP, joint LP or club structure available · Grand Canal acts as GP/sponsor · governance scaled to partner profile.

§ 1 · The Asset

A freehold corner site on Kensington High Street — scale, frontage and tenure independent of operating performance.

405 keys across 8 floors. 17,400 sq m on 0.88 acres. The corner of Kensington High Street and the Olympia London regeneration zone. Built 1966, part-refurbished in 2022 (141 keys) — the bones are sound, the product is dated.

Hilton London Olympia, 380 Kensington High Street
Hilton London Olympia380 Kensington High St · JLL
Hilton Olympia street-level view
Street-level frontageOperator
Property fundamentals
Address
380 Kensington High Street, London W14 8NL
Keys
405 (avg 21 sq.m)
Tenure
Freehold · 0.88 acres
Building
17,419 sq.m · 8 floors · 1966 (ref. 2022)
EPC
C
Brand
Hilton (HMA to Oct 2035 + 2 × 10-year extension)
F&B / MICE
1 restaurant & bar · 11 meeting spaces
Other
Gym · 43 sub-level parking spaces (5 op. by YPS)
Retail
216 sq.m at 378 Kensington High St (Indian Motors)
Structure
Corporate share acquisition · UK entities
§ 2 · Entry & pricing

Pricing represents a 27% – 30% discount on the 2022 acquisition price.

The assumed entry of £90m – £95m is 27% – 30% below the £130m transactional basis. The reset is driven by the prior owner's stalled redevelopment strategy. The real estate, the trading, and the location are all stronger today than they were in 2022.

Entry → Capex → Profit → Exit at 5.25% yield (£m)
Project Olympia · pricing waterfall · ranges hatched
Source: GCCP · JLL comp evidence · Operator stabilised NOI Year 5 £9.584m. Hatched bands show the £90m–£95m entry, £45m–£50m capex, and £40m–£45m profit ranges.
Assumed entry per key
£222k – £234.5k
Westminster Curio £619k · Holiday Inn Kensington £397k
Discount to prior basis
27% – 30%
£90m – £95m entry vs £130m 2022 transaction basis
Total project cost
c.£142m
£350,000 per key all-in · CAPEX of £45m – £50m
§ 3 · Location & demand

The hotel sits next to a £1.3bn culture-led district being built around it.

Olympia London is being transformed from an exhibition centre into a year-round destination. The Hotel captures the upside without development risk or planning exposure — major demand generators are being delivered by others.

Olympia London regeneration aerial
Olympia London regeneration master planOperator · AEG Presents
AEG Presents 4,000-capacity music venue
AEG 4,000-cap live music venueOpens 2025–2026
Demand generators arriving 2025 – 2026
4,000
AEG Presents live music venue
London's largest new music venue in over a decade · operated by AEG.
Music
Open 2025
1,575
Purpose-built theatre
Largest new theatre in London in over 50 years.
Culture
Open 2026
550k
Sq.ft of Grade-A office space
Drives weekday corporate demand and MICE business.
Office
Open 2026
30+
Restaurants & bars · 2.5 acres of public realm
Destination dwell time and evening / weekend footfall.
F&B
Phased
2026
New supply validates the destination
Hyatt Regency Olympia (204 keys, Upper Upscale) · citizenM Olympia (146 keys, Upscale Lifestyle) · ~476 keys / 2.9% of submarket inventory. Global brands commit at scale only where demand growth is structural.
Supply
Validating
10m
Forecast annual footfall at full build-out
3.5m
Direct visitors per year
£600m
Annual economic output
7,000
On-site jobs created
Submarket context

Chelsea / Earl's Court / Kensington — London's 2nd largest hotel market.

16,000+ rooms · 82%+ blended occupancy · high barriers to entry from dense residential surroundings · predominantly older stock — a refurbishment-led environment, not a development one.

§ 4 · Market dislocation

Priced like a midscale asset in an upscale market — a positioning gap, not a demand gap.

The submarket's upscale tier achieves 87.5% occupancy and £144 ADR. Hilton Olympia, in the same location and at greater scale, achieves £120 ADR. The gap reflects product condition and brand position — not demand.

Submarket ADR & RevPAR by tier (£) — 12-month performance to March 2026
Source: Operator / STR submarket data
Hilton Olympia · today

£120 ADR

Pricing aligns with economy / legacy midscale tier — well below the upscale benchmark the asset's location supports.

DoubleTree · 2031 stabilised

£184 ADR

Post-refurbishment and DoubleTree rebrand · competitive parity with upscale peer set at RGI of 95, MPI of 102.

The catch-up

RevPAR CAGR 13.7% · 2025–2029

Anchored to a refurbished product and a clearer brand position — not aggressive demand assumptions.

§ 5 · Business plan

Reposition. Rebrand. Flip to Franchise. Stabilise.

A sequenced plan that protects cashflow throughout. The hotel trades through the entire refurbishment programme — value is created by execution, not by a closure-and-reopening punt.

DoubleTree by Hilton guest room — reference standard
Sample DoubleTree roomRefurbishment reference
DoubleTree lobby reference
Refreshed lobby standardDoubleTree by Hilton
DoubleTree restaurant & bar reference
F&B repositionDoubleTree by Hilton
PHASE 1 · MONTHS 0–6

Stabilise & enable

Operate first · prepare scope
  • Hilton management retained · labour, procurement, revenue discipline
  • Channel mix optimisation · cost of acquisition reduction
  • EBITDA-protecting capex prioritised
  • Capex scope finalised · PIP preparation · governance set
  • Priority M&E / life-safety works in live operation
Outcome Trading maintained, margins protected. No meaningful key displacement.
PHASE 2 · MONTHS 6–15

Refurbish while trading

£45m – £50m phased capex · £111k – £123k / key
  • Floor-by-floor guestroom refurbishment (~80% rooms available)
  • Public areas refreshed early — lobby, F&B, meeting interfaces
  • Rolling M&E plant, energy, fire and compliance upgrades
  • Design aligned to future DoubleTree standards
  • Displaced keys actively matched to seasonality & event calendar
Outcome ADR support during works · infrastructure risk removed.
PHASE 3 · MONTHS 15–24+

Reposition & stabilise

Rebrand & flip to franchise
  • Complete remaining rooms / public areas
  • DoubleTree repositioning (PIP-aligned · Hilton engagement positive)
  • Evaluate & execute management → franchise transition
  • Reset operations to stabilised run-rate
Outcome Step-change in NOI, exit-ready asset, fee drag reduced.
§ 6 · Capex schedule

£45m – £50m total capex · £111k – £124k per key · phased while trading.

Costs at Q2 2026 price levels, excluding VAT and inflation. Schedule below shown at the higher end of the range (£50m all-in, including £5m of professional fees). Reviewed by operating partner's operations team against Hilton PIP requirements for DoubleTree conversion.

Cost category Scope £m £ / key % of total
Guestrooms & bathrooms Full refurbishment to DoubleTree standards — rooms, bathrooms, corridors 13.5 £33,300 30%
Windows & façade Window replacement, façade upgrades, thermal & acoustic performance 8.5 £21,000 19%
Public areas & F&B Lobby, reception, bar, restaurant interfaces, meeting rooms 4.5 £11,100 10%
Back-of-house Staff areas, kitchens, storage, service corridors 2.0 £4,900 4%
MEP & life-safety M&E upgrades, fire, energy, compliance works 10.75 £26,500 24%
Technology IT, PMS interfaces, guest tech, AV, connectivity 1.0 £2,500 2%
FF&E / OS&E Furniture, fixtures, fittings and operating equipment 2.5 £6,200 6%
Contingency (5%) Client contingency allowance 2.25 £5,600 5%
Total hard capex (ex-VAT, fees, inflation) £45.0m £111,100 100%
Plus professional fees £5.0m £12,300 —
All-in capex (higher-end estimate) £50.0m £123,500 —

Schedule shown at the upper end of the £45m – £50m range. Source: Operator STDD base case · Hilton PIP scope estimate · Q2 2026 price levels.

§ 7 · 5-Year NOI build

NOI more than doubles from £4.7m 2026 forecast to £10.4m by Year 5.

The bridge is anchored in real benchmarks: stabilised occupancy of 85% (consistent with the top-10 largest London hotels) and an ADR of £184 (in line with the upscale peer set), not aspirational assumptions. Years 1–2 occupancy is intentionally moderated to absorb the floor-by-floor refurbishment.

Net operating income (£m)
2027–2031 · phased repositioning
YearOcc.ADRRevPARNOI
2026f82.8%£124£103£4.7m
202770.0%£127£89£3.3m
202872.0%£133£96£3.3m
202984.0%£163£137£7.1m
203085.0%£186£158£9.4m
203185.0%£199£169£10.4m

Note: all ADRs, RevPARs and NOIs are shown in future-value terms assuming a 2% inflation rate. 2026f = forecast.

§ 8 · Returns & sensitivity

5-yr IRR 14.88% – 15.32% · 1.87× – 1.90×. 10-yr 2.21× multiple.

Levered LP returns at the base case. The 5-year IRR range reflects the £90m – £95m entry-price band. Sensitivity below stresses the variable that matters most at exit — the cap rate. Even at a 6.0% exit yield (above current franchised comp evidence), the 5-year levered IRR remains comfortably double-digit.

Base case · LP returns gross of GP
HoldLevered IRREquity MultipleExit YieldImplied Exit £
5 years 14.88% – 15.32% 1.87× – 1.90× 5.25% ~£183m
10 years 9.5% 2.21× 6.00% ~£185m

5-year IRR range reflects entry at £90m (upper end 15.32%) and £95m (lower end 14.88%). Total project cost c.£142m / £350,000 per key.

Exit-yield sensitivity · 5-year hold
Stabilised NOI (Y5) 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00%
£9.0m 13.3% 12.0% 10.8% 9.7% 8.6%
£9.3m 14.5% 13.2% 12.0% 10.8% 9.7%
£9.6m (Base) 16.5% 15.1% 13.7% 12.5% 11.3%
£9.9m 17.7% 16.3% 14.9% 13.6% 12.5%
£10.5m 20.1% 18.6% 17.2% 15.9% 14.7%

Cells show 5-year levered LP IRR at midpoint entry of £92.5m. Base case shaded (15.1% mid; 14.88% – 15.32% across the £95m – £90m entry-price range). Green = above 14%. Red = below 10%. Stabilised NOI from Operator 5-year projections; exit yields anchored to franchised London hotel comp set.

§ 9 · Comparable transactions

Stabilised franchised London hotels trade at 5.0% – 5.75% yields.

Hilton Olympia today aligns with the transitional cohort — management-operated, capex still to be deployed, earnings below stabilised potential. The plan progresses the asset toward the highlighted franchised peer set, where transaction evidence supports the £174–192m exit-value range — well above the c.£142m total project cost.

Year Asset Location Keys Price (£m) £ / Key Yield Structure
2026The Westminster (Curio, Hilton)Westminster 464287£619k~5.1%Franchise
2026St Giles LondonBloomsbury 732280£382k~6.8%Vacant Possession
2025Holiday Inn Kensington High StreetKensington 706280£397k~5.5%Franchise
2024Novotel London WestHammersmith 630229£364kn/aVacant Possession
2024Edwardian Hotels PortfolioLondon (various) 2,053800£390k~5.6%Franchise
2024Residence Inn PortfolioLondon 503229£455k6.9%Franchise
2023Hyatt Place London City EastAldgate 28085£304k~5.1%Franchise
2023Nobu ShoreditchShoreditch 14850£338k<2.0%Vacant Possession
2022Park Grand London KensingtonKensington 13262£470k<6.0%Vacant Possession
Project Olympia · entry 405 90 – 95 £222 – 234.5k — Mgmt → Franchise

Source: JLL Hotels & Hospitality · Operator. Highlighted rows indicate stabilised franchised transactions — the reference set for Project Olympia's exit.

Implied stabilised value
Stabilised yieldImplied valueUplift vs total cost (£142m)
5.00%£191.7m+£49.7m
5.25%£182.6m+£40.6m
5.50%£174.3m+£32.3m

Stabilised NOI £9.584m (Year 5, Operator model).

Consented 905-key redevelopment scheme
Consented 905-key redevelopment schemeGranted Oct 2023 · not underwritten
Existing planning consent — not in the base case

905-key redevelopment scheme is consented and remains in place.

Planning granted October 2023 under the prior demolition strategy — 11-storey, 905-room scheme across 25,810 sq.m GIA. We do not believe this to be a commercially viable option under current market conditions and capital costs; it is noted only for completeness.

§ 10 · The operator

A founder-led UK operating partner. Operator, not advisor.

Built by hotel owners, for hotel owners. The platform operates 10 hotels and 1,000+ keys across the UK, with deep experience in brand conversions and managed-to-franchise transitions — exactly the playbook required for Hilton Olympia.

Hotels operated
10
Multi-brand · major international flags
Keys under operation
1,000+
UK-wide · urban, regional, leisure
Team
900+
Operating professionals · 20+ central HQ
Track record
10 yrs
Through multiple cycles & transitions
CASE 01 · BRAND CONVERSION

Global hotel brand conversion

138 keys · acquired from a private equity vendor · full brand conversion required.

UK's first conversion under the relevant global hotel brand, delivered at speed. First-time Fire Life Safety approval at the brand standard — a benchmark very few operators secure. Full repositioning aligned with international brand requirements.

OutcomeBrand-aligned, value-accretive
LeverSpeed of execution
CASE 02 · REPOSITION

Global hotel brand reposition

98 keys · Grade II listed · acquired underperforming.

Listed-building refurbishment. Repositioned under a global hotel brand. Rebuilt the commercial engine — leisure, spa, events, weddings. Leisure revenue +100%. Weddings expanded to 150+ events / year.

OutcomeFull turnaround
LeverCommercial reset
CASE 03 · 3RD-PARTY MANDATE

Third-party management mandate

120 keys · first third-party management contract · regulated scheme.

Operating within a highly regulated government scheme. Rigorous operational controls implemented. Strongest-performing asset within the scheme — now the benchmark for other operators nationwide.

OutcomeScheme benchmark
LeverOperational rigour
Why this operator fits this asset

Founder accountability + integrated platform + operator-level control over labour, revenue and cost.

  • UK-based, fully-owned hotel operating platform — no franchisor abstraction layer.
  • Proven through refurb without disrupting cashflow — exactly the Hilton Olympia playbook.
  • Direct experience with PIPs, rebrands, and managed-to-franchise flips.
  • Senior leadership engaged on the transaction with founder-level oversight.
§ 11 · Risk & mitigants

The risks are operational and finite — not market or planning.

The plan is delivered against an existing income stream, with phased deployment of capital and brand engagement already underway. The principal risks are execution risks, addressable by the operating team and structuring.

Risk · 01Refurbishment disruption

Floor-by-floor refurbishment risks key displacement, complaints, or RevPAR drag during Year 1–2 works.

Mitigant

Phased delivery aligned to seasonality & event calendar. Hotel trades throughout. Occupancy intentionally moderated to 70–72% in works years; pricing protected. Public areas refreshed early.

Risk · 02Capex overrun

Total capex of £45m – £50m has cost-inflation, scope-creep and contingency-burn risk.

Mitigant

5% client contingency (£2.25m) baked into the £45m – £50m envelope. Disciplined governance under operating partner principal oversight. Scope, phasing, and PIP requirements finalised pre-spend in Phase 1.

Risk · 03Brand & franchise transition

Rebrand to DoubleTree and management-to-franchise flip require Hilton approval — both are HMA-permission dependent.

Mitigant

Early Hilton engagement underway and received positively. HMA runs to 2035 with two 10-yr extensions, so rebranding is only viable within the Hilton ecosystem. DoubleTree base case is the lowest-friction path.

Risk · 04Market volatility

London hotel cap rates, travel demand, FX, and macro events could compress the exit.

Mitigant

Conservative underwriting — base case exit at 5.25% vs comp evidence at 5.0–5.5%. Sensitivity matrix in §9 shows LP IRR holds above 12% across the credible cap-rate band even with NOI underrun.

Risk · 05New supply

Hyatt Regency Olympia (204 keys) and citizenM Olympia (146 keys) open in 2026 — risks fragmenting demand.

Mitigant

Different positioning lanes — citizenM lifestyle, Hyatt premium-upscale, Hilton Olympia high-occupancy full-service core. Combined ~476 keys is 2.9% of submarket inventory. Validates the destination rather than threatening it; raises pricing discipline across the set.

§ 12 · Why this investment works

Freehold London, immediate income, value through execution.

Hilton Olympia is not a development punt or a market-timing bet. It is a sequenced operational reset of a fundamentally sound asset — at a discounted entry, in a regenerating destination, executed by an aligned operator with a proven playbook.

Discounted entry

£90m – £95m vs £130m prior basis (27% – 30% discount). £222k – £234.5k/key vs comp set £390–619/key.

Durable demand

Submarket trades at 87.5% occupancy. New supply validates rather than threatens.

Clear ADR catch-up

£120 → £184 ADR. Positioning gap, not demand weakness.

Visible NOI growth

£2.3m → £9.6m by Year 5 · anchored to peer-set benchmarks, not aspiration.

Conservative underwriting

Pre-tax returns. Capital allowances and 905-key planning consent not in the case.

Aligned execution

Founder-led operating partner. Hilton engagement positive.

Grand Canal Capital Partners
Grand Canal Capital Partners
Contact · GCCP partners
Dave Murray
Partner
Aaron Sherlock
Partner
Jonathan Hillyer
Partner
Christopher Belton
Partner
Office
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